Italy’s installed solar PV capacity is projected to reach between 100 GW and 111 GW by 2035 and between 114 GW and 137 GW by 2040, according to the 2026 Scenario Description Document (DDS 2026), prepared by electricity transmission system operator Terna and gas infrastructure operator Snam to support their respective grid development plans.
Solar power generation is expected to increase from 44 TWh in 2025 to 110 TWh in 2030, accounting for more than 52% of renewable electricity generation and approximately 37% of total domestic electricity production. By 2040, solar generation could reach between 156 TWh and 185 TWh.
According to the document, utility-scale solar capacity will more than double between 2025 and 2030, rising from 24.5 GW to 54.1 GW. Distributed PV capacity is expected to increase from 19 GW to 28.2 GW over the same period.
For 2030, Terna and Snam have developed a single “Best Estimate” scenario, which they describe as “more of a forecast than a scenario.”
Under this scenario, combined solar and wind capacity is expected to reach approximately 103 GW by 2030, an increase of 45 GW from 2025 levels.
Around 23 GW of this capacity has already been allocated under support mechanisms including FER 1, Agrivoltaico, Agrisolare, FER X Transitorio and Energy Release 2.0. More than half of the allocated capacity is concentrated in southern Italy and Sicily.
5 GW to 3 GW, primarily driven by small-scale installations.
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