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An international team led by Northumbria University has developed and validated a simple five-factor risk score to identify older people at elevated risk of dementia in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)—where around 60% of the world's dementia cases now occur.

More people living with dementia are in these countries than anywhere else, yet almost none of the tools used to predict who is at risk were built for them. A Northumbria-led international research team has set out to close that gap with a new risk score, built from five everyday factors, designed specifically for LMICs.

Dementia affects more than 57 million people worldwide, and around 60% of those people live in LMICs across Latin America, the Caribbean, Asia and Africa. Existing prediction tools were developed using data from high-income countries (HIC) and have been shown to transfer poorly to other settings, leaving researchers in LMICs without a reliable way to identify who is at higher risk.

Using data from more than 11,000 older adults across seven countries and three continents, the team built and validated a model that can be applied using information gathered through a straightforward conversation—no blood tests, brain scans or specialized equipment required.

Dr. Eduwin Pakpahan, from Northumbria University's Applied Statistics and Data Science Research Group, said, "We know the burden of dementia is shifting toward lower-income parts of the world, yet the prediction models clinicians and researchers rely on were designed with wealthier populations in mind.

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