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Gold could hit $5,200 as US real yields remain key near-term hurdle

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Gold could hit $5,200 as US real yields remain key near-term hurdle

Gold could hit $5,200 as US real yields remain key near-term hurdle

The yellow metal is expected to trade at $4,200-4,700 a troy ounce for the rest of CY26 before moving higher as US fiscal risks, declining safe-haven appeal of US Treasuries and sustained central bank demand provide structural support.

Central banks are expected to remain key buyers of gold, with 45% adding to reserves year-on-year as of Q2CY26, up from 32% in Q4CY21. US federal debt has crossed $40 trillion and could reach 140-145% of GDP over the next decade, strengthening gold's appeal as a hedge against fiscal and currency risks. China's gold reserves account for just 8.02% of its FX reserves, while the PBoC added 20.2 tonnes in August, leaving scope for further reserve diversification.Higher US real yields, a firm dollar and expected Fed and BoJ rate hikes could keep gold range-bound over the next 2-3 quarters.

Gold could rise to $5,000-5,200 a troy ounce by end-CY27 as central banks diversify reserves, although elevated US real yields, a firm dollar and further rate hikes could cap gains over the next 2-3 quarters. Gold is expected to trade at $4,200-4,700 a troy ounce for the rest of CY26 before moving higher as US fiscal risks, declining safe-haven appeal of US Treasuries and sustained central bank demand provide structural support, according to a report by Elara Capital. 4% from their CY26 low as of September 22, after falling 26% from their CY26 peak amid the Middle East conflict and a sharp rise in US 10-year real yields.


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