Renewing decommissioned solar and wind projects is set to increase annual installations and improve project economics and affordability, according to analysis by Wood Mackenzie.

The consultancy’s latest report forecasts that more than 2.5 TW of solar and wind projects worldwide will reach their end of design life by 2040.

Site owners must then choose between upgrading existing equipment or decommissioning the plant by removing end of life infrastructure. Decommissioning can pave the way for installing new equipment at the same time, a process often known as repowering, which may reflect more than 20 years of technological innovation since the original build.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis explains that wind decommissioning is already happening as the wind industry began rapid deployment earlier than the solar industry. However by 2040, solar will have a larger ageing fleet, defined as equipment older than 20 years.

An owner’s decision to decommission solar or wind equipment and install new equipment involves weighing up the net present value of investing in extending the existing project’s lifespan against completely repowering the asset, the report says.

While there are several ways to repower solar and wind, Wood Mackenzie says the most common is the full decommissioning of the original project and the installation of new modules or turbines on the same site, while retaining some of the associated infrastructure.

Decommissioning is expected to drive 23% of solar buildout and 44% of wind buildout in the 2040s, according to figures from the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts repowering will hit the countries that were early adopters of renewables disproportionately, with decommissioning driving more than 70% of installations in Europe’s established markets in the 2040s, while new markets in Asia could see as little as 1%.

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