Now in its ninth month, the war in Iran has hit American pockets hard, and it could shift the balance in key midterm races that decide who controls Congress.

The serious damage to refineries and other facilities in the Middle East, combined with ongoing uncertainty about whether the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, have kept oil prices inflated. Americans have paid for it: The Center for American Progress estimates that the war has cost each US household at least $1,200.

Rising costs are among the reasons the war has been deeply unpopular, and Tuesday’s midterms are likely to be a referendum on how the White House has handled the impact. Democrats are trying to use that to their advantage to win races in places where the high price of diesel, home heating oil, and fertilizer are particularly top-of-mind for voters. Here’s how it’s playing out in key states across the country.

High diesel prices are affecting voters in every state, but it’s a particularly acute problem in Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott issued a state of emergency over diesel prices last month. The state, which traditionally had some of the lowest diesel prices in the country, has seen prices surge more than 80 percent compared to last year. That’s roughly 10 percent above the national average, according to AAA data.

Abbott is facing a tough reelection campaign, and his opponent, Gina Hinojosa, has used the war as an attack line against Abbott. She has pressured Abbott to suspend a state gas tax on diesel.

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