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Election Day could mean big things for your 401(k). Here’s what history tells us

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Election Day could mean big things for your 401(k). Here’s what history tells us

Whether or not Tuesday’s midterm elections deliver a so-called blue wave, one thing is for certain: More volatility will likely ripple through financial markets.

Midterm years have been historically weak for the U.S. stock market, delivering annual gains of just 7.5% versus an average return of 12.4% during non-midterm years, according to figures compiled by BlackRock. And even though more money has been pumped into this year’s midterm campaign than any other in history—to the tune of nearly $12 billion—your 401(k) portfolio isn’t likely to benefit so much.

Despite polling that points to Democrats gaining seats, nay the majority, in Congress, investors haven’t been positioning for such an outcome. Rather, a survey of more than 100 institutional investors conducted by Wolfe Research suggests that these key market players haven’t positioned themselves for any particular result, according to CNBC.

“Investors seem to have a significant dose of skepticism about whether the final outcome is going to be quite as favorable to Democrats as the polling suggests,” Tobin Marcus, the firm’s head of U.S. policy and politics, told the outlet. 

Likewise, veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni warns that the stock market hasn’t fully priced in a blue wave, as such an outcome could lead to “much worse” partisanship in Washington, D.C. “It could be a very cold shower for the market in terms of the gridlock,” Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told Bloomberg. 

For long-term investors, the best course of action is ignoring the election results and staying invested.


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