Mastercard has published research showing that 91% of small and medium-sized businesses that trade internationally plan to switch cross-border payment providers within two years, pointing to a sharp shift in competition for SME payment flows.

The study, produced with Bain & Company, surveyed more than 1,000 decision-makers across 11 markets. It found that smaller specialist providers are likely to gain ground at the expense of banks. By 2028, 48% of SMEs are expected to choose a fintech as their main cross-border payment provider, up from 30% in 2025, while 28% are expected to choose a bank, down from 42%.

The figures underline how quickly the market is changing as smaller businesses expand overseas and reassess how they move money between countries. The broader B2B cross-border payments market is forecast to grow 51%, from USD $31.7 trillion in 2024 to USD $47.8 trillion by 2032.

SMEs are placing greater weight on service quality than on price alone when deciding whether to stay with a provider or switch. Trust was cited by 35% of respondents as the most important factor in choosing a provider, followed by speed at 34%, while cost and transparency both stood at 28%.

Recent switching behaviour reflects that change in priorities. Among SMEs that had changed provider recently, 67% said faster transactions and more reliable settlements were the main reasons for moving.

Even so, the market is not becoming a winner-takes-all contest. More than nine in 10 SMEs surveyed already use multiple payment providers, suggesting many businesses split activity across several firms to meet different needs in different markets.

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