Indian banks are raising their expected credit loss estimates and bracing for investment book adjustments before a regulatory shift to forward-looking accounting takes effect on April 1, 2027.

Canara Bank widened its estimated one-time transition requirement to between 12,000 crore and 15,000 crore rupees, up from an earlier range of 12,000 crore to 13,000 crore rupees calculated in July. Central Bank of India added roughly 500 crore rupees to its credit loss provisioning tally, while Bandhan Bank revised its one-time assessment to 2,200 crore rupees.

The overhaul replaces the current incurred-loss provisioning model with an expected credit loss framework that forces institutions to account for potential loan defaults before repayments actually slip. Lenders must also mark their held-to-maturity investment portfolios to fair market value on March 31, 2027, absorbing the balance sheet difference through equity reserves.

Government paper yields climbed steadily across the four months leading into late October, driving up paper losses for treasury desks holding large sovereign debt books. India’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose from about 6.75 per cent at the end of June to 7.18 per cent by late September, before touching nearly 7.50 per cent in late October. A 25-basis-point increase in the Reserve Bank of India repo rate, local currency weakness, firm crude oil costs and tight domestic cash liquidity drove the debt market selloff.

32 per cent on Monday following a pullback in global oil prices. Even with that rally, benchmark yields sat about 57 basis points above late-June marks, keeping portfolio markdowns elevated across state and private balance sheets.

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