Buyers Willing to Pay Triple, as BCG Finds, Should Check the Retirement Date as Closely as the Rating

Carbon credit buyers have made it clear they will pay for quality. Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) latest survey of about 300 buyers found target portfolio prices have roughly tripled since 2022. BCG also found buyers can’t get enough of what they want, estimating they would spend about $800 million more a year if enough credits met their quality requirements.

For carbon removal, I’d argue another often-overlooked requirement is whether the tonnes will be available when buyers need them.

BCG defines carbon integrity as “whether a credit’s climate impact is reliably measurable and verifiable,” and the survey found buyers weigh trusted registries and rigorous measurement above everything else. A forward contract requiring ex post credits can be well designed and the project behind it well rated, but credits can’t be issued until the removals have occurred and have been verified. CO2 also keeps trapping heat every day it stays in the atmosphere, so a tonne removed in 2026 starts working right away, while a tonne promised for the 2030s does nothing until it arrives. The market has so far left that difference largely unpriced.

Timing also matters for a practical reason. That signed contract gives a buyer the right to a tonne, but the buyer can’t unequivocally claim the impact until the CO2 has been captured and stored, the data packaged, a third party has audited it, the registry has issued the credit, and the credit has been transferred.

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