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Harvard Study Predicts 32 Percent Of US New Car Sales In US In 2030 Will Be EVs

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Harvard Study Predicts 32 Percent Of US New Car Sales In US In 2030 Will Be EVs

A study by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University comes to a rather startling conclusion. Despite all the roadblocks put in the way of the EV revolution by the present US administration, the researchers predict EV sales in the US will quadruple from 8 percent today to 32 percent in 2030.

Absent the headwinds induced by federal policies, that number would have been closer to 48 percent, they claim. While the lower figure is lamentable, it is still an extraordinary prediction, given how legacy US automakers are backpedaling furiously from their prior EV ambitions.

“In the long run, everything’s going in the direction of market-based adoption, despite the moves by the Trump administration that reduce pressure for EV sales,” said Elaine Buckberg, senior fellow at the Salata Institute, one of the report’s authors and a former chief economist for General Motors. The report is entitled “Simulating Impacts of Proposed Trump Policy Changes on Electric Vehicle Adoption” and was released in July. It was written by Buckberg, James Stock, and Cassandra Cole.

The researchers analyzed the impact of several regulatory and legislative steps taken by the government since January 2025, including the revocation of tax credits for purchase of an electric car and installation of new charging equipment. In addition, the government eliminated restrictions on tailpipe emissions and revoked California’s ability to impose stricter tailpipe emission standards than the federal government requires. Several of these moves are being challenged in court.

Buckberg and team modeled each step and found the one with the biggest impact was removing the EV tax credit, which cut $7,500 off the price of a new electric vehicle.


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