In December 2025, BloombergNEF projected a pullback in global solar installations, with China slowing and the rest of the world growing. Ten months later, China has slowed more than expected. The rest of the world has grown slightly faster.
BloombergNEF now projects 584 GW of solar installations in 2026. That is a 10.8% decline from 655 GW in 2025. In December, it forecast 649 GW. In the first quarter of 2025, it expected 753 GW. That earlier 2026 figure is 29% higher than today’s forecast.
When asked whether there have been any surprises in the solar industry in 2026 – any Pakistan’s for instance – BloombergNEF CleanTech Analyst Jenny Chase said, “Honestly, none so far, a big theme has been no major booms. I don’t think it has anything to do with Chinese politics or pricing.”
BloombergNEF estimates China installed 383 GW in 2025. It now expects 271 GW in 2026, a 29% decline. In the group’s 2025 Q4 projection, China had been forecast for 2026 was 341 GW.
In December, BloombergNEF CleanTech Analyst Jenny Chase said growth in China “cannot continue at its historical breakneck pace.” She now attributes the deeper slowdown to saturation. “We doubt that either batteries or EVs will halt this, they just slow it down a little,” Chase told pv magazine USA.
Last year China deployed 383 GW of solar capacity, of which Chase noted the “breakneck” pace. The nation-state is projected to decline a massive 29% to 271 GW deployed. 2 GW in the same period of 2025, a even sharper decline of roughly 66% .
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