Treasury’s November 4 plan frames a possible December respite, while tax receipts and a projected January cash peak complicate the reserve case.

Treasury’s new financing calendar gives Bitcoin’s liquidity hopes a possible December window, with projected cash peaks on either side. Its Nov. 4 refunding statement anticipates cash peaks near $1,025 billion in late November and late January, with a lower balance assumed at December’s close.

That sequence sharpens the timing of potential reserve relief. If Treasury spends down its account at the Federal Reserve, it can return reserves to banks, all else equal. But the planned December reduction in bill auction sizes partly reflects expected tax receipts, which move cash the other way. That makes December’s net cash movement the first test of the funding case.

In its refunding statement, Treasury estimates that the Treasury General Account, its operating account at the Fed, could peak at $1,025 billion, plus or minus $50 billion, in both late November 2026 and late January 2027. It assumes an $850 billion balance at the end of December.

The Nov. 2 borrowing estimates also assume a $1 trillion cash balance at the end of March 2027.

The bill schedule adds a seasonal mechanism. Treasury expects to maintain current benchmark bill auction sizes into late November and may issue a short-dated cash management bill around month-end. It then expects to reduce shorter-dated bill auction sizes during December, citing projected corporate and non-withheld tax receipts around the middle of the month.

January reverses that issuance direction: Treasury anticipates increasing auction sizes across the bill curve as seasonal fiscal outflows rise.

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