Extreme heat brought about by this year’s “super” El Niño could result in the deaths of more than 450,000 people across the world in the next six months, a new report warns.
Researchers with the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab project that global temperatures will be 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 Celsius) above normal in the coming months, leading to a 44% increase in extremely hot days compared to normal years. As a result, the researchers estimate an increase in heat-related deaths from September to February 2027, according to the report.
The estimated death toll from the additional heat associated with the super El Niño comes on top of premature deaths already caused by high temperatures driven by the climate crisis.
The current El Niño is already breaking records—and it has not yet reached its projected peak. Sea-surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have climbed 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) above average.
As unusually warm ocean waters release additional heat into the atmosphere, global temperatures can rise, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat in many parts of the world. The heat from El Niño is also arriving on top of a climate system that has already been warmed by decades of human greenhouse-gas emissions.
The country most likely to suffer the most excess heat-related fatalities is Nigeria, with a projected 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600, according to the report. The United States falls in the top 20 countries impacted by extreme heat-related deaths, with 3,500 projected additional fatalities in the next six months.
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