Global leaders are gathering in Antalya, Türkiye, this week for the 31st annual United Nations climate conference. After a year of devastating floods, fires, storms, and heatwaves, negotiators will chart a path to curb long-term global warming—ideally keeping it below 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels. New research suggests many regions are already living in that hotter world.

The findings, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, show that while global temperatures have averaged 2.2 degrees F (1.2 degrees C) above pre-industrial levels over the past decade, regional warming reached up to 94% of the levels expected at 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) by 2025. The authors therefore conclude that current warming is “already indistinguishable from a 1.5-degree world,” underscoring the urgency of adaptation across all regions.

“Almost all regions have warmed faster than the global average,” lead author Francis Zwiers, scientist emeritus at the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at the University of Victoria, said during a Thursday press briefing. “Since pre-industrial times, warming has exceeded 2.5 degrees C [4.5 degrees F] in some high-latitude regions, and 2 degrees C [3.6 degrees F] in many others.”

In the decade since nations signed the Paris Agreement, an international treaty aimed at limiting global warming to 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C), temperatures have continued to rise at an accelerating pace. In a report published in September, UN scientists found that global temperature rise is set to overshoot the Paris Agreement target within the next few years.

Source link