Last year, global fossil fuel CO2 emissions reached a record high, rising 1.1% relative to 2024 levels. This year, the data tells a different story, but it comes with some major caveats.
A preliminary analysis for 2026 suggests that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels will be 0.4% lower in 2026 than they were in 2025. That’s according to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget, published by the Global Carbon Project today. While the finding is encouraging, the report’s authors say this isn’t the start of a long-term decline. It’s also important to note that global atmospheric carbon concentrations still increased in 2026.
“We see the main driver for the 2026 decline as the energy supply constraints brought about by the events in the Middle East,” co-author Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher in the Climate Mitigation group at the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), told Gizmodo in an email. He described the projected decline as a “short-term blip.”
Roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum and crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz per day, accounting for a quarter of the world’s maritime oil trade. The 2026 Iran war has severely impacted traffic through the strait, leading to the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
That disruption is a key factor behind the emissions decline projected in this year’s carbon budget report. 6%. 9%.
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