Institutional investors are no longer short of climate data. What they lack, according to Ortec Finance, is a reliable way to turn that data into investment decisions that make portfolios more resilient.

Many asset owners now accept that rising temperatures will materially affect macroeconomic conditions, markets and long-term returns. As a result, capital is increasingly flowing towards the low-carbon transition, a meaningful shift beyond what Ortec Finance calls “paper decarbonization”, where the focus is largely on satisfying regulatory reporting requirements. Yet despite a growing range of climate risk models and datasets, Ortec Finance argues that many investors still struggle to convert these insights into concrete changes to strategic asset allocation, benchmarks and portfolio construction.

The first is to rank temperature outcomes by scientific likelihood. Climate scenarios are not forecasts, but recent scientific research points to warming of 2.5°C to 3°C as the most likely outcome, with wider studies suggesting a high probability of exceeding 2°C by 2100. Ortec Finance stresses that this should not be read as assigning probabilities to specific financial outcomes, since similar warming levels can produce very different economic consequences. Instead, investors using a suite of deterministic scenarios can apply a probabilistic lens to the temperature outcome behind each one, helping them prioritise where to focus.

Second, investors should assess how climate risk feeds through to asset pricing. Direct physical damage is only part of the story. Shifts in sentiment, market-wide repricing and the speed at which shocks cascade across asset classes all matter. A property, for example, can lose value without ever being damaged if insurance becomes unaffordable or unavailable and buyers and lenders reassess its worth.

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