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DraftKings Raises Predictions Investment to $650M–$700M as DKeX Gross Take Rate Reaches 11.1%

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DraftKings Raises Predictions Investment to $650M–$700M as DKeX Gross Take Rate Reaches 11.1%

DraftKings is expanding a prediction market business from the client app to the exchange, even as the investment is set to absorb most of the Adjusted EBITDA expected from its established operations this year.

DraftKings has increased its expected 2026 Adjusted EBITDA investment in Predictions to between $650 million and $700 million, sharply reducing its group profit forecast despite continued profitability in its established sportsbook and iGaming business.

Overall third-quarter revenue rose 16% year over year to $1.33 billion. However, the quarterly Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $316.9 million from $126.5 million.

The company now expects full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $175 million to $275 million, down from its previous forecast of $700 million to $900 million.

Its core business is still expected to produce between $875 million and $925 million, but most of that contribution is being absorbed by the expansion of prediction markets. Predictions will require another $175 million to $225 million of Adjusted EBITDA investment in the fourth quarter alone.

DraftKings also expects the unit’s 2026 net revenue to remain immaterial because promotions for new customers will offset most of the gross revenue generated. The company disclosed the revised guidance alongside its third-quarter results.

To explain the larger investment, DraftKings provided its first detailed figures on how it earns revenue from trades on DKeX. During September and October, trades on DKeX generated an average gross take rate of approximately 11.1% across brokerage, exchange operations and market making.

DraftKings captured about two-thirds of that gross revenue, while external market makers received the remainder.


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