The phenomenon, which shakes up normal weather patterns, will be the most intense on record, with varying impacts on consumers and brands.

Just when merchandising and inventory management seemed complicated enough, thanks to shifting tariffs and rising costs, along comes the strongest El Niño weather disruption on record.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern where sea surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean rise near the equator, setting in motion weather anomalies across the globe. Its impact will be strongest in North America and during the fall and winter months.

As a result, this year’s event, already dubbed Super El Niño in some quarters, is destined to upset seasonal merchandising plans — unless retailers prepare for it, according to Matthew Porcelli, meteorologist and senior solutions engineer at The Weather Company.

“It doesn't mean collectively the country is going to be warmer or going to be wetter. El Niño has different effects depending on where you are around the country,” he said by video conference. “This is going to be a year that we've never experienced before, and anytime you're in business, the goal is to reduce the amount of uncertainty to reduce the risk in your sales plans, and so we're absolutely seeing that more than ever this year.”

Analysts in recent months have warned that El Niño could hurt brands that sell apparel for low temperatures or gear for winter sports.

Discussing Kontoor’s recently acquired Hellly Hansen ski brand, for example, BNP Paribas Equity Research senior analyst Laurent Vasilescu in August called for more details from the company regarding the brand’s sales prospects this year.

Source link