Commercial banks project the Taiwan dollar will rebound roughly 3 per cent to between 31.50 and 31.60 against the US dollar by year end. Massive current account surpluses and semiconductor export revenues continue to offset record foreign equity outflows.

The island raised its full-year economic growth projection above 10 per cent, putting Taiwan on track for its first double-digit economic expansion since 2010. That pace of output clashes directly with recent currency declines that pushed the exchange rate to its weakest point since April 2025.

Foreign funds offloaded NT$302.6 billion ($11.9 billion) of Taiwanese equities on Oct 15, marking the largest single-day equity outflow on record. The selling pressure drove the currency close to its 2026 low of 32.50 against the greenback.

Strong trade fundamentals tell a different story. Taiwan logged a current account surplus of nearly $70 billion in late 2025 as international demand for high-end artificial intelligence processors surged. MUFG Bank forecasts the currency will reach 31.80 per dollar by the end of 2026, before strengthening to 30.90 by June 2027.

Monetary authorities at the Central Bank of the Republic of China are managing currency swings rather than defending an absolute floor. State Street Bank & Trust identifies the 32.40 to 32.50 band as the year-to-date ceiling for the US dollar exchange rate.

“The CBC will attempt to keep the Taiwan dollar relatively rangebound,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank.

Energy import costs and wide interest rate differentials continue to complicate that stabilization effort.

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