Bitcoin will struggle to break above US$100,000 before year-end as climbing bond yields and geopolitical tensions cap capital flows into digital assets.

The largest cryptocurrency traded at US$81,404 on Saturday after slipping 0.4 per cent over five days, holding well below its peak of US$126,000 recorded in October 2025.

Trading desks and data platforms expect the token to range between US$75,000 and US$95,000 through the fourth quarter. Digital asset trading firm QCP Capital placed its base case between US$80,000 and US$90,000, while CoinMarketCap projected a final year-end close between US$85,000 and US$92,000. Higher borrowing costs in the United States and energy disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran continue to direct institutional cash toward traditional debt instruments rather than spot crypto markets.

Surging yields on US government paper have changed how regional asset allocators price speculative investments. The 10-year US Treasury yield reached a 24-year high of 5.36 per cent earlier this month, establishing a steep hurdle rate for non-yielding assets.

Liquid alternatives in sovereign debt now provide fixed returns without digital asset volatility. Digital asset infrastructure firm BitGo notes that elevated risk-free returns have altered portfolio construction across Asian desks.

Investors can earn attractive yields on lower-risk instruments such as Treasuries, so crypto is competing for capital on harder terms this quarter.

Retail and family office flows in Singapore and Hong Kong that previously chased crypto beta have shifted toward short-duration dollar paper. That reallocation has drained liquidity from secondary crypto markets, leaving market makers with thinner order books and less capacity to absorb sudden liquidations.

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