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Hormuz Freight Shock May Have Peaked, But Elevated Rates Are Here to Stay

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Hormuz Freight Shock May Have Peaked, But Elevated Rates Are Here to Stay

As oil movement out of the Strait of Hormuz approaches pre-war levels, the worst of the freight rate escalations since the start of the conflict in the Middle East may be over.

Although container prices out of China to the U.S. West and East Coasts have escalated 344 percent and 335 percent since Feb. 28, according to data from Xeneta released Friday, the ocean and air freight benchmarking platform provider suggests that the elevated rates may now see a plateau.

“We can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and air freight benchmarking platform Xeneta in a weekly update Friday. “Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year.”

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The spread between the two coasts has accelerated to $3,177 per 40-foot equivalent unit, with East Coast-bound containers reaching $11,523 on average and West Coast-bound boxes averaging $8,346. The gap between the two had been just $772 before the crisis, according to Sand.

S. East Coast due to its more elevated starting point,” said Sand.



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