Hermes and Cartier recorded double-digit sales drops in mainland China across August and September, as high-net-worth shoppers joined the broader retreat from luxury spending.

The contraction also hit the mainland’s top 25 luxury houses, pulling revenue down by double digits for labels such as Louis Vuitton and Gucci over the same two months.

Foot traffic and store receipts failed to rebound during the seven-day National Day Golden Week in early October, despite an uptick in domestic travel expenditure. That persistent weakness has prompted luxury executives across the sector to brace for a protracted downturn stretching into 2027.

Luxury groups long banked on their wealthiest VIP clients to absorb the blow of an exiting middle class, whose spending power evaporated in a prolonged residential property slump. That insulation has now cracked under the weight of softer equity markets and stricter scrutiny of offshore assets by authorities in Beijing.

The simultaneous loss of entry-level aspirational buyers and very high-net-worth patrons removes the core financial buffer that protected top-tier European houses. With high-ticket categories bearing the brunt of consumer restraint, retail receipts for jewellery and automobiles dropped as much as 21 per cent in the August-September stretch, even while overall retail sales growth crawled from 0.4 per cent in August to modest gains in September.

55 per cent growth projected by market consensus. The Asia-Pacific zone, excluding Japan, accounts for roughly 42 per cent of total group turnover for the French saddler, exposing its balance sheet directly to Chinese market softness.

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