This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility:

Even the most promising technologies can fail to take off if governments, producers and suppliers, along with consumer and business demand, are not able to support their growth, according to new research by Bayes Business School.

The paper published in Organization Science, co-authored by Dr. Mara Guerra, senior lecturer in strategy at Bayes, and Professor Rajshree Agarwal of the University of Maryland, compared respective development pathways for silicon and thin-film technologies that grew the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry between the 1950s and the present day.

For many years, both technologies had their own strengths. Thin film had lower per-unit cost and versatility while silicon also benefited from falling costs and innovation, and there was no obvious front-runner. However, when demand finally took off in the late 2000s, silicon was in a better position to meet utilities' requirements at scale, reliably and cost-effectively.

The virtuous cycle of events that pressed home silicon's advantage is identified by the researchers as a "reinforcement loop." Established supply chains and manufacturing equipment helped silicon achieve scale, which then enhanced reliability, reputation and cost efficiency. This in turn attracted further interest, investment and demand.

By contrast, thin film had more customized supply chains and weaker economies of scale, making it less reliable and financially unsustainable and leading to a queue of market exits from investors and producers.

Source link