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If Tesla’s Robotaxi Miles Keep Compounding at 20% a Week, the Math Gets Interesting Fast

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If Tesla’s Robotaxi Miles Keep Compounding at 20% a Week, the Math Gets Interesting Fast

Tesla just passed Waymo in Austin in weekly driverless miles. If its recent 20% weekly growth holds, it passes Waymo nationally in roughly 11 weeks and is doing the volume of Uber + Lyft across three Texas metros by mid-February.

The accumulating unsupervised miles are already large enough to start answering the safety question versus humans and versus Waymo. That has implications for whether LiDAR is actually required.

I noted in my Q3 earnings summary that Tesla’s unsupervised robotaxi miles jumped from 250,000 last quarter to about 1.7 million, and then the same day the company said they were already at 3.3 million. That implies roughly 20% weekly growth on the recent run. I want to take that number seriously for a limited window and see where it goes relative to Waymo and to the actual ride-hail market in the Texas cities where Tesla is already operating. Then I’ll draw some conclusions.

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