pv magazine: How do you see the global PV supply chain evolving over the next 12–24 months, particularly in terms of pricing, capacity and supply-demand balance?

Edurne Zoco: The global PV supply chain will remain oversupplied over the next 12–24 months, even as consolidation slowly picks up. China alone has more than 900 GW of annual cell production capacity, while global demand is about 590 GW, so capacity will only gradually exit the market. Technology shifts will help reduce capacity. We expect continued consolidation and low global prices, but increasingly divergent prices across regions. Trade barriers, local-content rules and security concerns are shifting the industry from “cost-first” to “resilience-first.” From suppliers’ perspective, access to protected markets has become a key driver of pricing resilience and margins, and market access now matters as much as production costs.

Yes, but each segment is at a different stage. Solar is furthest along: average margins at leading module makers fell from about 9% in 2023 to negative levels in 2025. Inverters face steady price pressure, with shipments growing but revenue remaining flat. Batteries are earlier in the cycle and still profitable. Manufacturing capacity is expanding rapidly, and cells and storage hardware already face stronger price competition. BESS is not yet where solar is, but some of the same pressures are emerging. The supply of the most in-demand, high-quality cells remains tight.

The dynamics shaping global PV supply chains – including solar modules, inverters, and battery energy storage systems – will be discussed during the “ Decoding solar supply chains ” session at the NetZero event in Milan on Oct.

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