Customer financing persisted beyond inventory effects in historical data, leaving Bitcoin spillover dependent on evidence from crypto credit markets.

Federal Reserve staff research published Oct. 30 finds that Treasury dealers can keep financing customers' bonds after their own auction inventory has largely cleared. That lingering lending uses balance-sheet capacity, so falling inventories can give an incomplete picture of dealers' ability to finance Treasury positions.

The study estimates that each dollar of Treasury coupon issuance expanded dealer balance sheets by about 21 cents, with roughly two-thirds attributable to client financing. Its main regression sample covers eight large bank-affiliated dealers from January 2016 through June 2025. These are historical estimates, rather than measurements of October 2026 stress.

The mechanism separates owning a bond from financing its owner. Dealers can sell Treasuries to customers while continuing to supply repo financing, short-term loans secured by the bonds. As the New York Fed explains, dealers also borrow cash to fund their lending to leveraged clients. Moving the security off inventory need not end that intermediary role.

In the Fed study, the effect of coupon issuance on dealers' long positions dissipates within roughly three days after issuance. The increase in reverse repo, the financing dealers provide clients, remains measurable during the following week.

The study associates issuance with greater use of Treasury trading desks' internal risk limits, which can reduce spare intermediation capacity. Its illustrative leverage-ratio calculations, however, put temporary issuance effects well below aggregate regulatory headroom. Available room across dealers does not establish spare capacity at each desk.

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