Any year-end reserve relief depends on actual cash flows and funding costs, with a larger first-quarter Treasury cash rebuild already assumed.
The U.S. Treasury’s Nov. 2 borrowing estimates put a possible year-end liquidity benefit for Bitcoin on a short timetable. Its cash assumptions imply a fourth-quarter drawdown followed by a larger rebuild early in 2027, a path that could reverse the Treasury-account contribution to bank reserves.
The department expects to borrow $618 billion in privately held net marketable debt during October–December, $10 billion less than estimated in August. But that lower headline owes to a larger inherited cash buffer. Strip out the opening-cash surprise and the borrowing requirement is $24 billion higher.
Treasury entered the quarter with $984 billion in cash, compared with the $950 billion assumed in August. That extra $34 billion offsets the $24 billion increase in the cash-adjusted borrowing requirement, leaving the headline estimate $10 billion lower.
The end-December cash assumption remains $850 billion. Against the observed September endpoint, that implies a $134 billion decline across the whole fourth quarter. The projection covers the whole fourth quarter, including cash flows before Nov. 2.
The next quarter changes the direction. Treasury estimates $800 billion of borrowing for January–March 2027 and assumes an end-March cash balance of $1 trillion. Relative to the assumed December endpoint, that is a $150 billion rebuild.
If those assumptions are realized, the first-quarter refill would more than reverse the preceding quarter’s projected cash drawdown through the Treasury-account reserve channel. The figures describe quarter-end assumptions; they do not provide a daily liquidity timetable.
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