VanEck said California, Florida and Rhode Island measures could affect state and local revenues and future municipal bond supply.

Ballot measures in California, Florida and Rhode Island could affect both the revenue base behind municipal credit and the amount of new debt issued, according to a Nov. 2, 2026 VanEck commentary by senior municipal strategist James Colby.

VanEck said there are 145 ballot measures in 39 states that could influence how states and local governments raise revenue and borrow. The firm framed the election night focus as extending beyond Congress to the fiscal effects of state and local propositions that may alter tax receipts or authorize borrowing.

In California, Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% wealth tax on covered billionaires, with exclusions including real estate and retirement accounts, and direct 90% of the proceeds to healthcare, VanEck said. The firm said collections are uncertain and that the measure could also reduce income-tax receipts over time. VanEck added that Proposition 40 does not stand alone: competing Propositions 41 and 42 could block implementation depending on the vote and court interpretation. Under that framework, the wealth tax could be stopped if either competing measure receives more "yes" votes than Proposition 40, even if Proposition 40 wins a majority.

California Proposition 3 would make the state’s existing higher income-tax rates on high earners permanent, VanEck said. The firm said the legislative analyst estimates the measure would preserve $5 billion to $15 billion annually, depending on market conditions. VanEck said the issue matters for state credit because it would turn a revenue stream with an end date into part of the permanent base.

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