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Bitcoin’s usual lifeline is failing as a bond market warning puts $80,000 at risk

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Bitcoin’s usual lifeline is failing as a bond market warning puts $80,000 at risk

Falling Treasury yields have historically supported risk assets, but a rush toward government bonds could leave Bitcoin exposed to deeper losses.

Bitcoin briefly lost the $81,000 footing on Oct. 22, while the Nasdaq lost more than 2%, spot gold dropped about 2.7% to $4,025, and silver sank about 5.8% to near $54.63.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.146% to below 5%, marking its biggest one-day drop in more than two years. Brent crude hit an intraday high of $114.70, the highest reading this year.

Four assets that usually move in different directions fell together while government bonds rallied.

Lower yields mean higher bond prices, reflecting Treasury buying while the Fed's policy range sits at 3.75% to 4%.

The Oct. 22 selloff fits a scenario where funding sends investors into bonds and out of riskier holdings. Bitcoin traded with equities, and even gold fell, as the dollar index slipped to its lowest since Oct. 1, with gold's two usual supports pointing higher.

The World Gold Council's Oct. 19 Weekly Markets Monitor, “Bonds back in the room,” observed Treasuries rallying during the Nasdaq decline despite hot inflation.

It raised the possibility that renewed safe-haven demand for bonds could compete with gold for capital, while acknowledging that lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of owning the metal.

The Oct. 22 simultaneous bond rally and precious-metals selloff matches the Bitcoin competition story. Price moves leave the source of the buying undetermined, and gold ETF flows, real yields and futures positioning would separate that explanation from others.


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