The October 2025 crypto crash exposed the dangers of leverage and crowded bets. A year later, analysts say those risks remain.
Nearly a year after one of crypto's most violent selloffs, the question hanging over the market is whether traders have learned enough to prevent another one.
Just days after hitting a record high above $126,000O, on October 10, 2025, bitcoin plunged from around $122,000 to $105,000, with much of the decline occurring within minutes. The crash triggered roughly $19 billion in liquidations across crypto markets, catching traders off guard after months of bets on further gains.
But while the selloff shook confidence in the market, the conditions that helped cause it haven't gone away.
"It just was a very quick and violent market top that we did not expect," said Mark Connors of Risk Dimensions, who previously ran a hedge fund positioning product at Credit Suisse.
"Positioning was important then, and it's important today," he said in an interview.
Coming into the crash, open interest was near historic highs, and traders had piled into bullish positions, betting that bitcoin would follow its familiar four-year cycle toward fresh records.
"People were keenly aware, like me, they were bulled up because it was 'go' time," Connors said. "We were going to go to that $250,000 to $300,000, $400,000 level using previous cycles."
"The movement was obviously not onchain data. I mean, it was all derivatives," he said. " The lesson, he argues, is that bitcoin's price can be driven as much by leveraged bets as by demand for the asset itself.
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