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Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks

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Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks

Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in half of the past 90 US trading sessions, while historical midterm data highlights gains for stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 in half of US trading sessions over Glassnode’s latest measurement period, ending a prolonged stretch of losing more sessions than it won.

Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode shows that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Street trading sessions over a rolling 90-session period.

The reading, covering the 90 sessions through Wednesday, marks an improvement after an extended period in which Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won.

“The win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won,” Glassnode wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.

Glassnode added that Bitcoin’s average per-session gains were also “slightly higher” than those of the S&P 500.

Democrats’ wins in the US midterm elections have also drawn attention to historical stock market gains following similar results.

Data from crypto asset manager Capriole Investments shows that Democratic sweeps of Congress under Republican presidents have historically been followed by strong S&P 500 returns.

Related: Bitcoin hits $80.5K as US stocks rally on midterm election results

Of the 26 midterm elections since 1922 (excluding this year’s vote), Democrats won both the House and Senate under a Republican president seven times. The S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% over the following three months.


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