Bitcoin price traded near $77,500 on Tuesday morning as polls opened for the U.S. midterm elections, down about .6% on the day and roughly $30,000 below its price one year ago, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
The vote decides control of Congress and, with it, the fate of the CLARITY Act, the market structure bill that passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on Sept. 15.
Prediction markets on Kalshi give Democrats a 94% chance of taking the House and 74% for the Senate. A Democratic Senate would likely put Sen. Elizabeth Warren in line to chair the Banking Committee. If Congress does not act before the new session convenes on Jan. 3, the bill dies and must be reintroduced.
Crypto groups spent more than $200 million on the midterms, CNBC reported. Analysts at TD Cowen see a Democratic sweep as the most probable outcome and the least favorable one for the industry; a divided Congress, in their view, leaves room for a narrower deal.
The bitcoin price action into the vote has been one-directional. Bitcoin price opened November near $78,500 and has lost about $2,000 since. October closed down about 7%, the second straight October decline.
On Oct. 28, after a hawkish Federal Reserve hold and weak earnings from Alphabet and Samsung, the price fell below $80,000 for the first time in weeks, with about $356 million in leveraged positions liquidated.
The larger shock came the next day. On Oct. 3 billion from Binance’s hot wallets, the largest crypto theft on record.
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