Investors were assessing the Fed's pause when a $6 billion Binance breach raised questions about access to their funds.

The Federal Reserve asked for more information before changing interest rates. Eighteen and a half hours later, the economy supplied it: growth was strong, inflation remained elevated, and households were spending more without buying much more. But before investors could settle what that combination meant for Bitcoin, a Binance security breach raised a more immediate concern about their ability to move money.

The Binance hack complicates any attempt to treat Friday's crypto selloff as a verdict on Wednesday's policy decision. Expensive borrowing and uncertainty over an exchange can both discourage risk-taking, but they work through different channels and demand different responses.

The Fed's 10–2 vote left its benchmark range at 3.75%–4%. Both dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted a quarter-point increase. The disagreement concerned whether to raise borrowing costs immediately or wait for more evidence, leaving the prospect of another increase in December unresolved. An unchanged rate offered little basis to assume cheaper financing was coming.

Selected FOMC meetings, October 2025–October 2026. Policy bars show the midpoint of the target range announced at each meeting. Projection bars show the median target midpoint for end-2026, calculated from published participant dots. Blank projection bars mean no new quarterly projections were issued, not a zero rate. Dates identify meetings, not forecast endpoints. Projections are individual policy assessments, not commitments or market odds.

Source: Federal Reserve: target-rate history · Federal Reserve: 2025-12-10 projections · Federal Reserve: 2026-03-18 projections · Federal Reserve: 2026-06-17 projections · Federal Reserve: 2026-09-16 projections · Federal Reserve: October 29, 2025 decision · Federal Reserve: October 28, 2026 decision

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