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Bitcoin boxed in below key cost bases as ETF flows turn negative

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Bitcoin boxed in below key cost bases as ETF flows turn negative

Glassnode says Bitcoin is below the cost basis of buyers from the past two years while ETFs have resumed net outflows and support sits near $80K.

Bitcoin is being pulled between overhead supply from recent buyers and support from spot demand and order-book bids, according to Glassnode Research’s Oct. 14, 2026 report. At the quoted price of $81,695 on Oct. 14, the asset sits below Glassnode’s estimated cost bases for buyers from the past two years, while remaining above a cluster of on-chain and market support levels that have so far limited deeper weakness.

Glassnode said coins bought 6 to 12 months ago have an estimated cost basis near $88,000, while coins bought 1 to 2 years ago sit closer to $100,000, using daily on-chain data through Oct. 13. Both cohorts have already turned price back earlier this year, and Glassnode said 1- to 2-year holders stepped up selling into the early-October rally. The report frames those break-even zones as overhead supply until Bitcoin can close above them.

The distinction matters because the report is cohort-based rather than a claim about every investor who bought during the same broad period. Current market data supplied alongside the report put Bitcoin at $81,695 on Oct. 14, leaving the price below both of those cost-basis estimates.

Glassnode places Bitcoin’s True Market Mean, an average cost basis of active investors, near $78,000, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis below current price as well. S. spot ETF cost basis at about $81,500. The report says Bitcoin dipped under that ETF benchmark on Oct.


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