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Bitcoin beats the S&P 500 on most trading days but still loses the month

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Bitcoin beats the S&P 500 on most trading days but still loses the month

Bitcoin outperformed US stocks in 10 of 18 October sessions, but losses twice as large as its winning margins left it trailing as BlackRock dominated ETF inflows.

Bitcoin's relative win rate against the S&P 500 recovered above 50% in recent sessions, up from about one session in five in June, its weakest stretch in roughly six years, according to Glassnode.

Coinbase Institutional's Oct. 23 report found BlackRock's IBIT drawing about $6 billion since Aug. 1 against roughly $500 million across all other US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a 92% share of net inflows. Farside Investors’ data extended through Oct. 26 puts the share at 96.3%.

A date-matched calculation for October through Oct. 26 shows Bitcoin beating the S&P 500 on 10 of 18 sessions (55.6%). Bitcoin fell 4.25% over the same stretch, and the S&P rose 0.33%, a 4.58% gap in stocks' favor.

In its 10 winning sessions, Bitcoin's average edge was about 0.71%, and in its eight losing sessions, its average shortfall was 1.44%, roughly twice as large.

In the first half of 2026, corporate treasuries bought about $14.5 billion of Bitcoin while US spot ETFs saw almost $5 billion of net outflows. Since August, ETFs have drawn roughly $6.4 billion against about $1.5 billion from treasuries.

Farside Investors’ fund-level data shows that from Aug. 3 through Oct. 26, IBIT took in a net $5.7 billion and every other fund combined $221 million.

October's share is undefined as a concentration measure, since IBIT added $866 million while rival funds lost over $1 billion and the whole category sits at about $203 million of net outflows.


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