Glassnode said Bitcoin has returned below the $84K-$85K band as ETF inflows cooled and volatility dropped to summer 2023 levels before the Fed decision.

Bitcoin has slipped back below the $84,000-$85,000 band that briefly gave way around its September high, with Glassnode saying the move comes as ETF demand has faded, volatility has compressed and sellers have remained relatively restrained. The report, published Oct. 28, 2026, framed the market as range-bound ahead of the Federal Reserve decision later that day.

Glassnode said most of the $653 million that flowed into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 19 had already left again by Oct. 22, including $540 million out that day, leaving just $67 million net inflows over the prior two weeks. It also said ETF trading volume has been thin since May, averaging about $1.3 billion a day and falling to about $700 million on Oct. 23, one of the quietest sessions of the year. On Glassnode's reading, that leaves the funds contributing little incremental demand at current prices.

The report said bitcoin was trading just under the U.S. Spot ETF Cost Basis of $81.5K, the average price paid by ETF holders. It added that a daily close back above that level would put the average ETF holder back in profit.

According to Glassnode, long-term holders own roughly 4 million BTC bought between $85K and $118K, with more than half of those coins acquired above the current price. That creates overhead supply if price recovers toward the band, the report said.

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