El Niño is looming large over the 31st annual United Nations climate conference (COP31) this week. Scientists have been warning for months that this record-strong event will exacerbate the impacts of an already warming climate, and a recent decision by the World Health Organization underscores the potential consequences for global health.

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s 2026 State of the Climate Report, released on the first day of COP31 negotiations, the WHO has classified the anticipated health impacts of El Niño as a health emergency. This is the first time the UN agency has done so for an El Niño.

“The current El Niño is expected to act as a risk multiplier for health,” the WMO report states. “Increased heat, drought and heavy rainfall can contribute to heat-related illness and mortality, wildfire smoke and poor air quality, malnutrition and food insecurity, injuries, and changing risks of water- and vector-borne diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue.”

Last week, the WHO published its Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan for this event. The agency will pursue a Grade 3 response, meaning that the 2026-2027 El Niño will require “major to maximal” efforts to reduce preventable morbidity, mortality, and disruption of essential health services.

“In fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable settings, El Niño-related climatic shocks may further aggravate already severe humanitarian conditions characterized by protracted conflict, forced displacement, food insecurity, recurrent disease outbreaks, weakened health systems and restricted humanitarian access,” the plan states.

Since May, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have been rising with unprecedented speed.

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