The smartphone market suffered its worst decline on record in the September quarter, after rising memory costs pushed shipments down 22% with worse to come, according to market researcher IDC.

The higher cost of storage over the past year, led by demand from AI industry orders, has hurt profitability across the mobile sector and forced companies to raise prices, cut back specifications and discard budget-focused models, IDC said.

Chinese brands like Xiaomi Corp. and Oppo took the worst hit among the top names, while Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. fared better due to their larger premium handset portfolios.

Device manufacturers are increasingly recognizing they’re facing a permanent structural shift and IDC now expects any recovery in growth won’t come until 2028, at the earliest.

As companies increase prices and push consumers toward flagship or ultra models, the long-term trend is seen translating into greater share of a smaller market for Apple and other vendors with large-scale distribution and a premium mix of products.

“Current indicators suggest that the market has not yet reached the bottom,” said IDC research director Nabila Popal. “Memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising, creating substantial pressure on vendor margins and shipments. The worst is yet to come.”

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