Artificial intelligence-related financing could grow to about $10 trillion over the next five years, eventually reaching excessive levels, said Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.

Roman estimated that about $2 trillion of financing needs could be created annually over the next five years to fund capital spending by the AI industry, compared with a US bond market of about $12 trillion.

The amount is eventually “going to be too much,” Roman said during a panel with Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray at the 2026 Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

“At some point in time, there’s going to be a downturn, and then things are going to break,” Roman said. He added that a downturn could be triggered by anything from rising US interest rates or war in the Middle East to a euro-zone crisis.

Asked whether being too cautious or taking on too much risk would be the bigger mistake for portfolio construction today, Roman said the greater danger was taking on too much risk.

Gray struck a more bullish tone, saying “some of this scepticism today is probably healthy,” while adding that the broader AI trend points to more investment and substantially greater demand for capital.

“What is happening is very powerful, and I think underestimating the productivity gains that are coming and the change in consumers and businesses, that’s a mistake,” Gray said.

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