With the strongest El Niño on record still intensifying, this climate phenomenon is bound to have a major influence over winter weather across the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official seasonal outlook yesterday, and it looks like the country can expect some classic El Niño weather patterns.

The temperature and precipitation forecasts, which span December 2026 to February 2027, generally predict warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier and wetter than average conditions across the southern tier, much of the West Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard. That’s the exact setup one would expect to see during El Niño, which shifts the jet stream southward over the nation.

But this forecast comes with caveats. First, this 90-day outlook does not predict actual temperatures or precipitation amounts for the upcoming season. Rather, it describes the likelihood that the season’s average temperature and precipitation will be above normal, near normal, or below normal, and how drought conditions are likely to change in the months ahead.

Second, every El Niño unfolds differently. While stronger events tilt the odds toward expected weather outcomes, even the most powerful El Niño ever observed cannot guarantee specific impacts. In fact, forecasting the effects of the 2026-2027 El Niño may be complicated by climate change and the fact that neither scientists nor climate models have ever seen an event of this magnitude before.

Still, NOAA’s seasonal outlooks are based on extensive historical weather data and state-of-the-art forecast modeling, so they offer a highly informed perspective on how the season might unfold.

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