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Most companies are planning their workforce backward. Here’s a better way

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Most companies are planning their workforce backward. Here’s a better way

Every leadership team is wrestling with the same questions right now. How will AI impact our organization, and what type of workforce will we need in the future?

These aren’t easy questions to answer. Only 19% of companies are effective at planning for their future workforce, according to a July 2026 survey by Gartner. These organizations understand how work will change, anticipate the impact of artificial intelligence, and act to realign the workforce with strategy.

Without this type of planning, organizations create workforce gaps that threaten strategy execution. According to two earlier Gartner surveys from May 2025, 40% of boards cite skill shortages as a top threat to shareholder value, and only 39% of CEOs say they have the talent the company needs to deliver financial performance.

The problem isn’t a lack of workforce data or forecasting tools. It’s that most organizations start their workforce planning in the wrong place.

Most workforce planning starts bottom-up from the existing workforce. Leaders consider the roles, skills, and tasks that exist today, then ask how AI could reshape them. The underlying assumption is that if AI can automate or improve something, it eventually will.

AI is proving too costly to deliver on that promise. According to an April 2026 Gartner survey, almost 40% of organizations have exceeded their budget when it comes to AI spending. Supporting AI talent and infrastructure costs are also rising. This means that AI will only become more expensive in the future.

As a result, not every role that can be redesigned because of AI will be, and not every opportunity that AI creates will warrant investment .


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