This year’s Super El Niño “looms large” over the winter forecast for the United States, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wrote this week.

And for about half of the country, that’s shaping up to make for a wet winter. 

El Niño is a climate phenomenon defined by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and a weakening of trade winds that flow from east to west. All those changes affect atmospheric conditions, disrupting global weather patterns.

El Niños typically present with wetter conditions across the U.S. South, and drier than conditions farther north.

A 2026-2027 Winter Outlook map from NOAA illustrates that, showing a wavy band cutting across the U.S. that will bring “above normal” precipitation to the southern half of the country. That band swings up to cover the entire California coast and the East Coast, as well.  

Certain areas will be impacted even more: parts of Florida, for example, are forecasted to experience 70-80% above normal precipitation.

“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS), said in a statement. 

That wet weather could ease drought conditions in the southwest. Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast, according to another NOAA map. 

“While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides,” Graham said.

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