California’s Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on all billionaires in the state if more than 50% of voters fill in the box for “yes” by Tuesday. It’s going to be a close one and may not pass, based on the latest polling.

Back in May, the Public Policy Institute of California found that 54% of California voters said they supported the wealth tax, with 45% saying they’d vote no.

The more recent polling has shown it to be even closer, with a Public Policy Institute of California poll taken Oct. 16-22 showing just 46% saying they would vote yes and 52% voting no.

An even more recent poll by a different organization, the University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, taken Oct. 19-25, shows just 42% saying they’ll vote yes and 50% pledging to vote no.

Why the big shift? That could have something to do with the massive amounts of money that billionaires are spending to fight the proposed tax. Building a Better California, funded by Google’s Sergey Brin, Eric Schmidt, and several other billionaires, have outspent those who are trying to get Proposition 40 passed 250-1, according to the Washington Post.

Building a Better California has raised $379 million and spent about $148 million, according to the Post. And if you watch TV in California, the ads are everywhere. Their main pitch is that passing Prop 40 will potentially allow legislators in California to tax non-billionaires in the future.

If Prop 40 passes, about 90% of the money is supposed to be allocated to Medi-Cal, the name for Medicaid benefits in California, according to KQED .

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