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Prediction markets’ trading volume doubled between May and July, largely driven by sports

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Prediction markets’ trading volume doubled between May and July, largely driven by sports

The combined monthly global trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket – the two leading prediction markets – more than doubled in the span of two months. It rose from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from The Block, a digital assets media and information firm.

This increase was mostly due to a large uptick in sports trading. Sports is now the most traded topic on both platforms by a large margin. Previously, the Center has found that sports traders tend to place more trades than those who focus on other topics.

In June and July, coinciding with the FIFA World Cup, sports trading topped $58 billion on Kalshi and neared $22 billion on Polymarket.

For comparison, Americans wagered around $40 billion on legal sportsbooks in the first quarter of 2026 – about on par with the combined prediction market trading volume on sports over the same period of time. Some regulators have argued that these sports contracts amount to offering sports betting nationwide, in violation of state and local gambling regulations.

This Pew Research Center analysis looks at trading volume on the two major prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, from July 2024 through July 2026.

Pew Research Center does research to help the public, media and decision-makers understand important topics. This research builds on our recent work on gambling and the broader prediction economy – including public attitudes toward sports betting and views of the morality of gambling in countries around the world.


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