The numbers look good for Game Pass, but maybe not so good for Microsoft's bottom line

Gears of War: E-Day is off to a strong critical start, but early sales estimates suggest Microsoft's latest Xbox blockbuster may be struggling to turn that acclaim into actual sales.

The latest entry in The Coalition's third-person shooter series launched Oct. 6 on Xbox Series X and PC, returning players to the early days of the Locust invasion. But according to estimates from Alinea Analytics, the game sold just 230,000 copies during its early-access period, with most players instead accessing it through Xbox Game Pass.

Alinea analyst Rhys Elliott shared the figures on X on Oct. 9, estimating that E-Day sold 168,000 copies on Steam and another 62,000 across Xbox console and PC. The game reportedly attracted 1.7 million Game Pass players, including an estimated 722,000 who paid $30 for the Premium Edition upgrade to play five days early.

The numbers have not been confirmed by Microsoft, and they don't tell the whole story. Elliott noted that Xbox accounted for nearly three-quarters of the game's estimated revenue, despite Steam accounting for the majority of sales.

Still, the figures raise questions about whether Game Pass is undermining Microsoft's ability to sell its biggest games at full price.

“In a world without day-one Game Pass, many of these folks would have bought E-Day at $70,” Elliott wrote. “They paid $30 for five days early access to something they don't own.”

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