Gears of War: E-Day sales topped 230,000 across Xbox and Steam following an October 1 launch, according to estimates from analyst firm Alinea.
Market analysis head Rhys Elliott reports the Xbox player base is larger than it appears, even if premium sales were dominated by Steam. An estimated 62,000 people bought the game outright on Xbox consoles, with 168,000 buyers on Steam.
SteamDB ownership estimates, which are always fallible and are especially volatile shortly after launch, support this figure, estimating 171,000 to 195,000 owners at the time of writing.
How did a new, highly rated entry in a flagship series sell just 62,000 copies on Xbox in launch week? (Our Gears of War: E-Day review also awards it high marks.) Elliott notes that while Xbox Game Pass is "cannibalising much of the premium revenue," with some 1.7 million estimated players playing E-Day through the subscription service, over 722,000 Game Pass subs also paid for E-Day's premium upgrade.
"So '230K copies' undersells the paying audience," Elliott writes. "Including the 722K upgrades, nearly 950K people actually paid something for E-Day." This brings the game's total estimated sales revenue to around $37 million.
Nevertheless, "The $70 premium SKU is – functionally – dead on Xbox," Elliott argues.
I've reached out to Microsoft for comment on these figures, which remain unconfirmed estimates, and its expectations for E-Day.
As Circana games analyst Mat Piscatella points out online (not in direct response to Alinea's report, but certainly in its orbit), "it isn't straight cannibalism if a person paying for Game Pass plays an offered game through the service."
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