Prometeia has launched a new monthly brief on Italy, Italy in the Global Economy, and its October 2026 edition finds that Italy’s growth has been revised upward, but is slowing.

According to Prometeia, the world economy ended the first half of the year in better shape than anticipated, despite the energy shock and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Global growth remains at around 3%, supported by still solid labour markets, consumption and technology investments.

Global trade has also continued to surprise, with Prometeia reporting growth above 5%, supported by AI-related goods.

Closer to home, Prometeia has revised its forecast for Italy’s 2026 GDP growth upwards to 0.9%, from 0.7% in its July Brief. The upgrade follows a stronger-than-expected second quarter, when the economy grew 0.2% quarter on quarter, driven by household consumption.

However, Prometeia notes that Italian inflation has accelerated to over 4%, reaching 4.2% in September. The rise has been driven mainly by energy costs and unprocessed food, while core inflation is still limited to 1.7%.

Looking ahead, Prometeia expects rising upstream pressures to push inflation to a peak of around 4% in the fourth quarter. The firm forecasts average inflation for 2026 close to 3.0%, easing to 2.4% in 2027.

These are just a snapshot of the detailed monthly brief that explores Italy’s economy over the past year. Read the full report on Italy here. 

Source link