Napier AI has released the third edition of its AML Index, covering 2026 to 2027. It finds that global money laundering losses have fallen for the first time since the research began, though the company warns the improvement is fragile and uneven.
According to Napier AI, the Index examines money laundering losses, compliance costs, anti-money laundering (AML) effectiveness and AI regulation across 42 markets.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime puts the share of global GDP laundered each year at between 2% and 5%. Napier AI’s research estimates that $5.09tn was laundered worldwide last year, around 4.30% of global GDP.
That is a drop of $203bn, or 3.84%, on the previous year. The company stresses that the absolute fall is the key figure. Losses as a share of GDP fell from 4.81% to 4.30%, but nominal global GDP rose 7.58% over the same period, so economic growth is flattering the ratio.
The report includes the following unattributed statement: “Losses have fallen, but not by enough, and economic growth is doing some of the work. Geopolitical disruption is handing criminals new opportunities. Governments that treat money laundering as recoverable value, not just regulatory cost, stand to gain most.”
Compliance spending also fell. Global AML compliance cost an estimated $227.95bn last year, down from $239.74bn, a reduction of $11.79bn or 4.9%. This is the first year in which losses and compliance spend have fallen together. Spend per dollar laundered improved slightly, from 4.53 to 4.48 cents.
8bn through 2027.
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