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Is AI finally helping regulators outpace money launderers?

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Is AI finally helping regulators outpace money launderers?

Global money laundering losses reached $5.09tn last year, according to new research from Napier AI. That figure is equal to 4.30% of global GDP. It also marks the first year-on-year fall in illicit flows since Napier AI began tracking the problem, with losses dropping by an estimated $203.33bn.

The figures come from the Napier AI / AML Index 2026–2027, produced with GlobalData. Dr Janet Bastiman, chief data scientist at Napier AI, led the study, which looks at money laundering across 42 markets worldwide. As a share of GDP, laundering fell from 4.97% in 2023 to 4.88% in 2024, and then to 4.30% in 2025. Nominal GDP growth explains part of that decline. Even so, Napier AI says this is the first time its Index has recorded an actual fall in the total value of illicit funds. The firm sees this as early evidence that anti-money laundering (AML) innovation can outpace organised crime.

Napier AI CEO Greg Watson said, “The scale of money laundering remains staggering even with promising signs of pushback in the fight against financial crime. For too long it has been assumed that the rising cost of financial crime was an inevitability, but our research proves otherwise.

“However, conflicts and rapidly changing sanctions regimes have resulted in an uneven regulatory environment and gaps in financial crime defences which criminals exploit. Our newest analysis traces these trends that create the border line of financial crime and outlines how geographic and political proximity impact risk exposure as much as domestic defences and regulatory red tape.


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