HDFC Bank margins near bottom, but expensive FCNR(B) deposits could delay recovery
The bank expects its NIM trajectory to remain neutral to positive in Q3FY27 and improve thereafter, supported by the repricing of floating rate loans and a gradual shift towards better yielding retail and micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) advances.
HDFC Bank’s NIM fell 10 bps sequentially to 3.16% in Q2FY27, with FCNR(B) costs likely to temper recovery. FCNR(B) mobilisation boosted deposit growth, but CASA deposits rose 11% year on year against 23% growth in term deposits. Retail disbursements exceeded Rs 900 billion, while business banking grew 28% year on year. Gross NPA fell to 1.11%. The brokerage retained BUY, cut its target price to Rs 950 from Rs 975 and expects RoA of 1.8% to 1.9% over FY27-29.
HDFC Bank ’s net interest margin ( NIM ) may have bottomed out in the September quarter, but the cost of foreign currency non-resident (FCNR(B)) deposits could temper the pace of recovery in the coming quarters. 16% in Q2FY27, despite slower corporate growth, as its cost of funds remained flat. The impact of a 25 basis points rate hike is expected to begin reflecting in margins from December 2026, although the full quarter cost of FCNR(B) deposits will partly offset the benefit. The bank expects its NIM trajectory to remain neutral to positive in Q3FY27 and improve thereafter, supported by the repricing of floating rate loans and a gradual shift towards better yielding retail and micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) advances.
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